The Best Thing About September Movies is that Awards Season is Just Around the Corner

You might think from my title that no good movie has ever been released for broad distribution in September. Of course that would be wrong. After all the movie industry has released to the public movies such as Goodfellas, Moneyball, Almost Famous, L.A. Confidential, and The Town in the month of September. But, as followers of this blog are aware, I deal in probabilities. And, based on my data, there is only a 38.3% chance I will “really like” a movie released in September. For the optimists out there, that does mean that almost 4 out of every 10 movies released I will “really like”. There will be some good movies but I wouldn’t gamble that seeing a movie on a September opening weekend is a good bet. After all you wouldn’t go to a casino and feed your entire paycheck to a slot machine with only a 38.3% chance of winning .

If you need more convincing, consider this. Out of 158 movies nominated for a Best Picture Oscar since 1990, only 4 (2.5%) were released in September and none of them won. Three of those four movies were mentioned above. The fourth is The Full Monty. How many of you have seen The Full Monty?

Here is a list of last September’s top five box office hits:

Gross (000000) Budget (000000)
Hotel Transylvania 2 $169.70  $                   80.00
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials $81.70  $                   61.00
The Intern $75.80  $                   35.00
The Visit $65.20  $                     5.00
Black Mass $62.60  $                   53.00

Only one of the five , Black Mass, earned a Certified Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, and that was with the bare minimum for the rating, 75% Fresh. None of the five met my IMDB baseline of 7.3 for a “really like” movie.

So should we just skip the movie theater in September? Maybe. But, if you really want to see a movie in the theater in September, pick one of the little movies released in August, like Hell or High Water or Florence Foster Jenkins. Be patient! Awards Season at the movies is just around the corner, beginning in October.

Author: Mad Movie Man

I love good movies. In my prior life I worked with predictive models. I've combined my love of movies with my prior experience to create a simple Bayesian probability model to help select movies that you will probably "really like".

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