September, When the Movies You Expect to be Good Are Bad and Vice Versa

Picking “really like” movie prospects for September is a tricky game. The movies that sound good probably aren’t and the movies that don’t sound good may be alright

Picking “really like” movie prospects for September is a tricky game. The movies that sound good probably aren’t and the movies that don’t sound good may be alright. As I mentioned in my last post, there is a 38.3% chance that I will “really like” a movie released in September. That means that, if I pick five movies as “really like” September prospects, I could randomly pick five and stand a good chance that two of them will be “really like” movies. Right? Theoretically, that’s true. But, I’m not picking randomly, I’m trying to pick movies I’d like which may work against me.

For example, my first movie is:

Sully. Release Date: September 9, 2016       “Really Like” Probability: 40%

This movie is directed by Clint Eastwood and stars Tom Hanks. In the last 15 years I’ve seen 15 movies directed by Clint Eastwood and “really liked” 12 of them. Over the same time frame I’ve watched 25 movies that Tom Hanks starred in and 20 of those I “really liked”. So, I “really liked” 80% of the movies I’ve seen for both the Director and the Actor. Here’s something else those 40 movies have in common. None of them were released in September. If a movie that involves the pedigree of Eastwood and Hanks is released in September, should we be skeptical? Yes, but because of the pedigree, I have to put the movie on the prospect list.

Similarly, my second prospect:

The Magnificent Seven . Release Date: September 23, 2016  “Really Like” Probability: 35%

This movie also stars a very bankable actor, Denzel Washington, and a new star, Chris Pratt. I’ve seen 23 Denzel Washington movies and “really liked” 17 of them. The movie is also in one of my favorite genres, the Western. But, guess what, none of those 23 movies was released in September. Again, this is a movie I want to see but the release date makes me skeptical.

Which brings me to three movies that don’t jump out and say “watch me” but are intriguing nonetheless. The first is:

The Light Between Oceans. Release Date:September 2, 2016 “Really Like” Probability: 35%

This movie stars two big name actors, Alicia Vikander and Michael Fassbender, who happen to be in a relationship in their private lives. Does the off-screen chemistry translate on-screen a la Katherine Hepburn and Spencer Tracy? We’ll have to wait and see if this melodrama rises above September expectations.

The next movie may be September-proof:

Queen of Katwe.  Release Date: September 30, 2016    “Really Like” Probability: 45%

Walt Disney Pictures over the last couple of decades has developed  a sub-genre specialty in their efforts  to produce family oriented entertainment, the “true underdog ” Sports Movie. While on occasion they’ve taken liberty with the facts, as in the 2015 McFarland, USA, their product has been consistently entertaining.This year’s underdog competitor is a young girl from a Ugandan village who trains to be a world chess champion. I believe that this movie is the most promising of the month.

For my final choice, I’m going with a selection from the odd filmography of Tim Burton:

Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children.  Release Date: September 30, 2016         “Really Like” Probability: 35%

Why did I pick this movie? Maybe it’s because it has a little bit of a Harry Potter feel to it. The clincher though is that Samuel L. Jackson is in the movie. There are five actors who I’ve seen in at least 25 movies over the past 15 years. Samuel L. Jackson is one of the five. And, he ranks only behind Tom Hanks in the average rating I’ve given those movies.

That’s all I’ve got. After all it is September movies we’re talking about.




Author: Mad Movie Man

I love good movies. In my prior life I worked with predictive models. I've combined my love of movies with my prior experience to create a simple Bayesian probability model to help select movies that you will probably "really like".

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