The core mission of this blog is to share ideas on how to select movies to watch that we’ll “really like”. I believe that there have been times when I’ve bogged down on how to build the “really like” model. I’d like to reorient the dialogue back to the primary mission of what “really like” movies I am going to watch and more importantly why.
Each Wednesday I publish the ten movies on my Watch List for the week. These movies usually represent the ten movies with the highest “really like” probability that are available to me to watch on platforms that I’ve already paid for. This includes cable and streaming channels I’m paying for and my Netflix DVD subscription. I rarely use a movie on demand service.
Now, 10 movies is too much, even for the Mad Movie Man, to watch in a week. The ten movie Watch List instead serves as a menu for the 3 or 4 movies I actually most want to watch during the week. So, how do I select those 3 or 4 movies?
The first and most basic question to answer is who, if anyone, am I watching the movie with. Friday night is usually the night that my wife and I will sit down and watch a movie together. The rest of the week I’ll watch two or three movies by myself. So, right from the start, I have to find a movie that my wife and I will both enjoy. This week that movie is Hidden Figures, the 2016 Oscar nominated film about the role three black female mathematicians played in John Glenn’s orbit of the earth in the early 1960’s.
This movie became available to Netflix DVD subscribers on Tuesday May 9. I received my Hidden Figures DVD on that day. Something I’ve learned over the years is that Netflix ships DVD’s on Monday that become available on Tuesday. For this to happen you have to time the return of your old DVD to arrive on the Saturday or Monday before the Tuesday release. This gives you the best chance to avoid “long wait” queues.
I generally use Netflix DVD to see new movies that I don’t want to wait another 3 to 6 months to see or for old movies that I really want to see but aren’t available on my usual platforms.
As of the first quarter of 2017, Netflix reported that there are only 3.94 million subscribers to their DVD service. I am one of them. The DVD service is the only way that you can still access Netflix’ best in the business 5 star system of rating movies. It is easily the most reliable predictor of how you’ll rate a movie or TV show. Unfortunately, Netflix Streaming customers no longer have the benefit of the 5 Star system. They have gone to a less granular “thumbs up” and “thumbs down” rating system. To be fair, I haven’t gathered any data on this new system yet therefore I’ll reserve judgement as to its value. As for the DVD service, they will have me as a customer as long as they maintain their 5 star recommender system as one of the benefits of being a DVD subscriber.
The 5 star system is a critical assist to finding a movie for both my wife and I. Netflix allows you set up profiles for other members of the family. After my wife and I watch a movie, she gives it a rating and I give it a rating. These ratings are entered under our separate profiles. This allows a unique predicted rating for each of us based on our individual taste in movies. For example, Netflix predicts that I will rate Hidden Figures a 4.6 out of 5 and my wife will rate it a 4.9. In other words, according to Netflix, this is a movie that both of us, not only will “really like”, but we should absolutely “love”.
Hidden Figures has a “really like” probability of 61.4%. It’s Oscar Performance probability is 60.7% based on its three nominations. Its probability based solely on the feedback from the recommender sites that I use is 69.1%. At this point in time, it is a Quintile 1 movie from a credibility standpoint. This means that the 69.1% probability is based on a limited number of ratings. It’s not very credible yet. That’s why the 61.4% “really like” probability is closer to the Oscar Performance probability of 60.7%. I would fully expect that, as more people see Hidden Figures and enter their ratings, the “really like” probability will move higher for this movie.
Friday Night Movie Night this week looks like a “really like” lock…thanks to Netflix DVD.