Now that we know which movies have been nominated for Academy Awards, all of the factors that go into the 2017 Objective Top Twenty are populated with some data. The only big unknown in the race is which movies will win Oscars on March 4. Just to be clear, the Objective Top Twenty isn’t about who will be crowned as the Best Picture of the year. It is about which 2017 movies have the highest probability that you will like them. Academy Award performance is just one of the indicators. Here is the status of the race so far.
|2017 Widely Released Movies||Objective “Really Like” Probability|
|Blade Runner 2049||76.58%|
|Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri||76.06%|
|Only the Brave||75.64%|
|Greatest Showman, The||75.57%|
|Florida Project, The||75.50%|
|Monster Calls, A||75.46%|
|Star Wars: The Last Jedi||75.14%|
|Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2||75.14%|
The separation among all twenty movies isn’t great. In fact, there is only a two percentage point difference separating the top thirty two movies. A few ratings changes over the next couple of months can significantly reshape the race.
To determine which movies are considered “widely released” in 2017, I use the wide release date used by Box Office Mojo. The Post was released on Dec. 22 in nine theaters. It wasn’t until Jan. 12 that it was released in theaters in all markets. So The Post, along with Oscar nominated films, Molly’s Game, I, Tonya, Phantom Thread, and Call Me By Your Name will be considered for the 2018 Objective Top Twenty instead of 2017. And, 2016 movies like Lion, Hidden Figures, and The Salesman which weren’t widely released until 2017 are on the 2017 list.
So, you might ask, why aren’t The Shape of Water with its 13 Oscar nominations, Darkest Hour with its 6 nominations, and Lady Bird with its 5 nominations, in the top twenty. It goes back to my earlier comment about how close the top 32 movies are. All three of these movies could win a major award on March 4 and end up back in the top twenty. It’s that close.
So check back each Monday for the Objective Top Twenty updates. There are still some changes to come. The cake may be in the oven but it isn’t baked yet.