And the 2018 Academy Award for Best Picture Goes To?

We are 11 days removed from the 2017 Best Picture award debacle and already Awards Circuit has projected its first list of nominees for the 2018 Best Picture race. Obviously it is way too early make predictions like this with a high degree of accuracy. Many of the movies are still being filmed and can’t be realistically evaluated. It does, though, give us an idea of the movies that evaluators believe have Oscar pedigree.

We are 11 days removed from the 2017 Best Picture award debacle and already Awards Circuit has projected its first list of nominees for the 2018 Best Picture race. Obviously it is way too early make predictions like this with a high degree of accuracy. Many of the movies are still being filmed and can’t be realistically evaluated. It does, though, give us an idea of the movies that evaluators believe have Oscar pedigree.

Here is the Awards Circuit list with its current production status:

2018 Projected Academy Award Nominees for Best Picture
Movie Release Status Short Description
Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project In Production 1950’s Drama set in London Fashion world.
Suburbicon Post-Production 1950’s Crime mystery set in small family town.
Darkest Hour Nov. 24 release Churchill biopic set in early days of WW II
The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara Pre-Production Historical Drama set in 19th century Italy
Battle of the Sexes Post-Production Billie Jean King-Bobby Riggs 1973 tennis match
The Current War In Production Edison-Westinghouse scientific competition.
Mudbound Post-Production Post-WW II drama set in rural Mississippi
Downsizing Dec. 22 release Social Satire about less is more.
Marshall Oct. 13 release Biopic about a young Thurgood Marshall
The Snowman Oct. 13 release Adaptation of Jo Nesbo crime thriller.

If this first list is representative of the entire year, 2018 is going to be a year of looking back in time. Only two of the ten movies listed here take place in a contemporary setting, Downsizing and The Snowman.

I’m probably most interested in Battle of the Sexes. Emma Stone plays Billie Jean King and is projected as a Best Actress nominee by Awards Circuit. Can she go back to back years as Best Actress?

I’m least interested in the Paul Thomas Anderson movie, even if it includes a rare star turn by Daniel Day Lewis. I hated There Will Be Blood and wasn’t a big fan of Boogie Nights.

In any event, that’s my gut reaction to the Best Picture projections. Is there any data to support my gut? I’m trying out a new data point called an Anticipation Score. The website Criticker provides averages of my ratings for movies involving specific Directors, Screenwriters, and Actors. By tabulating the scores for the film makers involved in each movie I can create an Anticipation Score based on my historical rating of their work. I’m including the two lead actors for each movie. For example, Battle of the Sexes is directed by Jonathon Dayton, screen written by Simon Beaufoy, and stars Emma Stone and Steve Carell. I’ve seen two of Jonathon Dayton’s movies and given them an average rating of 65.5 out of 100. I’ve seen five movies written by Simon Beaufoy for an average of 68.6. I’ve seen seven Emma Stone movies, averaging 81.57, and eight Steve Carell movies, averaging 73. When you add all four numbers together they total an Anticipation Score of 288.67. This represents my potential enjoyment of the movie if each artist entertains me at the average level that they have in the past.

Here’s the entire list ranked by Anticipation Score:

My Anticipation Score
Director Writer Lead Actor 1 Lead Actor 2 Score
The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara S. Spielberg T. Kushner M. Rylance O. Isaac 323.39
Downsizing A. Payne J. Taylor M. Damon K. Wiig 313.14
Darkest Hour J. Wright A. McCarten G. Oldman K. Scott-Thomas 293.39
Battle of the Sexes J. Dayton S. Beaufoy E. Stone S. Carell 288.67
Suburbicon G. Clooney E. Coen M. Damon O. Isaac 283.01
The Snowman T. Alfredson H. Amini M. Fassbender R. Ferguson 216.67
The Current War A. Gomez-Rejon M. Mitnick B. Cumberbatch M. Shannon 212.13
Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project P. T. Anderson P. T. Anderson D. D. Lewis L. Manville 159.13
Mudbound D. Rees D. Rees C. Mulligan J. Clarke 137.23
Marshall R. Hudlin J. Koskoff C. Boseman S. K. Brown 86.5

My gut reaction to Battle of the Sexes and the Paul Thomas Anderson movie are borne out in the data, although these movies are neither the best or worst of the rankings. The two movies at the bottom of the list are there because I have never seen movies directed or written by the two film makers involved. In the case of Marshall, although I’ve seen Sterling K. Brown on TV shows, I haven’t seen any movies that he has been in. As a result, the Anticipation Score for Marshall is based solely Chadwick Boseman’s movies that I’ve seen.

I think my Anticipation Score formula needs some tweaking to take into account the volume of movies seen for each artist. The fact that I’ve seen 21 Spielberg movies should be recognized in addition to the average rating I give each of his movies.

In any event, keep your eye out for these movies as we get back into Oscar season, beginning in October.

 

 

Is Meryl Streep’s Oscar Record Out of Reach?

With the presentation of Academy Awards completed last Sunday, I am able to tabulate the last Actors of the Decade winners.

With the presentation of Academy Awards completed last Sunday, I am able to tabulate the last Actors of the Decade winners. For the male actors, the winner is Daniel Day Lewis.

Top Actors of the Decade
2007 to 2016 Releases
Actor Lead Actor Nominations Lead Actor Wins Supporting Actor Nominations Supporting Actor Wins Total Academy Award Points
Daniel Day Lewis 2 2 0 0 12
Jeff Bridges 2 1 1 0 10
Leonardo DiCaprio 2 1 0 0 9
Colin Firth 2 1 0 0 9
Eddie Redmayne 2 1 0 0 9
George Clooney 3 0 0 0 9

This result is pretty incredible when you consider that Daniel Day Lewis only appeared in three movies during the entire decade. His three Academy Award Best Actor wins stands alone in the history of the category. It might be interesting to measure Oscar nominations per movie made. I’d be surprised if we found any actor who is even close to Daniel Day Lewis.

As for the Best Female Actor, once again, it is Meryl Streep.

Top Actresses of the Decade
2007 to 2016 Releases
Actress Lead Actress Nominations Lead Actress Wins Supporting Actress Nominations Supporting Actress Wins Total Academy Award Points
Meryl Streep 5 1 1 0 19
Cate Blanchett 3 1 1 0 13
Jennifer Lawrence 3 1 1 0 13
Marion Cotillard 2 1 0 0 9
Sandra Bullock 2 1 0 0 9
Natalie Portman 2 1 0 0 9

When the 28 year old Emma Stone accepted her Best Actress in a Leading Role award, she commented that she still has a lot to learn. It is that kind of attitude, and a commensurate work ethic, for a young actress today to take a run at Meryl Streep’s Oscar nomination record of 20 nominations. Consider that the actresses that Streep chased early in her career, Katherine Hepburn and Bette Davis, received their first nominations some 45 years before Streep earned her first nomination. It has been 38 years since Meryl Streep received her first nomination. We should be on the lookout for the next actress of a generation. Is there a contender already out there?

Let’s look first at the career Oscar performance of Streep, Hepburn, and Davis.

Acting Nomination Points
Lead Actress = 1 point,  Supporting Actress = .5 points
Points at Age:
30 40 50 60 70 80
Meryl Streep 1 7 11 14.5 18
Katherine Hepburn 2 4 6 9 10 11
Bette Davis 3 8 10 11 11 11

I chose not to equate a supporting actress role with a lead actress role to be fair to Hepburn and Davis. With the studios in control of the movies they appeared in, stars didn’t get the chance to do supporting roles. Bette Davis had a strong career before age 50. Katherine Hepburn was strong after age 50. Meryl Streep has outperformed both of them before 50 and after 50. It is not unreasonable to expect more nominations in her future.

As for today’s actresses, I looked at multiple nominated actresses in different age groups to see if anyone is close to tracking her.

Age as of 12/31/2016 Comparison Age Points at Comparison Age Streep at Comparison Age
Cate Blanchett 47 50 5.5 11
Viola Davis 51 50 2 11
Kate Winslet 41 40 5.5 7
Michelle Williams 36 40 3 7
Amy Adams 42 40 3 7
Natalie Portman 35 40 2.5 7
Marion Cotillard 41 40 2 7
Jennifer Lawrence 26 30 3.5 1
Emma Stone 28 30 1.5 1
Keira Knightley 31 30 1.5 1
Rooney Mara 31 30 1.5 1

Except for the 30-ish actresses, none are keeping pace. You might argue that Kate Winslet is in striking distance but, given Streep’s strength after 40, that’s probably not good enough.

Of the young actresses, Jennifer Lawrence has had a very strong start to her career. With 3 lead actress nominations and 1 supporting nomination over the next 14 years she would join Bette Davis as the only actresses to keep pace with Meryl Streep through age 40. Then all she would have to do is average between 3.5 and 4 points every 10 years for anther 30 years or more.

Good luck with that. Along side Joe DiMaggio’s 56 game hitting streak, it may become a record that will never be broken.