This Fall Women Will Be Able to Cherry Pick Their Movies

Last week Miranda Bailey (the film producer, not the Chief of Surgery on Grey’s Anatomy) announced at South by Southwest that she will be launching a new movie critic rating aggregator this Fall called CherryPicks

Last week Miranda Bailey (the film producer, not the Chief of Surgery on Grey’s Anatomy) announced at South by Southwest that she will be launching a new movie critic rating aggregator this Fall called CherryPicks (think Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic) . Just what we need, another Movie Critics website. Right! Actually, right, we do need this website. The unique feature of this website is that it will aggregate only female critics. And, in terms of seeking out “really like” movies, it is a perspective that is sorely lacking in the existing movie ratings options.

In Entertainment Weekly’s article introducing CherryPicks, Miranda Bailey points out that there is around a 4 to 1 ratio of male to female critics on Rotten Tomatoes. This disparity doesn’t usually come into play in reviews of the universally great movies. Many of these movies are gender neutral. But for a female oriented independent film that doesn’t have 300 reviews, gender inequity can be the difference between a Certified Fresh rating and a Rotten rating, and the box office impact that goes with it.

It’s even worse on IMDB, where male voters tend to overwhelm female voters in the development of the average rating for each movie. As women in Hollywood raise their voices, the divide between male and female voters on IMDB gets wider. I wrote about the male IMDB voter backlash that resulted with the 2016 release of Ghostbusters and its all female cast. Today, of the 165,000+ IMDB voters who rated Ghostbusters, less than 30,000 were women. The average rating from men is 5.0. The average rating from women is 6.6. The overall average rating is 5.3. The fact that women thought that the movie wasn’t bad was drowned out in the deluge of male votes that panned the movie. Its overall 5.3 rating suggests Ghostbusters is a bad movie when an equitable gender distribution of the movie probably would suggest that it actually was an okay movie and not bad at all.

Like it or not, rating websites like Rotten Tomatoes and IMDB drive how much movies get seen. For female movie producers, directors, and actors, how much their movies get seen determines how much they work and how much they earn. For them, a website like CherryPicks is critical to their livelihood.

For me, CherryPicks has a much more modest import. I want to be able to pick out a movie for Friday Movie Night that both my wife and I will “really like”. For followers of this blog, I need to be able to identify movies that women will like as well as men. I need data that isn’t skewed to men. I’m hopeful CherryPicks can play a part in providing a step towards a balanced perspective. For now, any list I produce which recommends movies will indicate whether IMDB suggests that the movie is female friendly,  male friendly, or just neutral. My weekly watch list which I published yesterday is the first list with these indicators. Next week’s final 2017 Objective Top Twenty will also include these indicators.

For now, this is the best I can do until CherryPicks is able to lend its voice in the Fall.

 

 

Before You See Mother! This Weekend, You Might Read This Article

As you might expect, I’m a big fan of Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website. Last Thursday they published an interesting article on the impact of polarizing movies on IMDB ratings, using Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power as an example. This is not the first instance of this happening and it won’t be the last.

As you might expect, I’m a big fan of Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website. Last Thursday they published an interesting article on the impact of polarizing movies on IMDB ratings, using Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power as an example. This is not the first instance of this happening and it won’t be the last.

When the new Ghostbusters movie with the all female cast came out in July 2016 there was a similar attempt to tank the IMDB ratings for that movie. That attempt was by men who resented the all female cast. At that time I posted this article. Has a year of new ratings done anything to smooth out the initial polarizing impact of the attempt to tank the ratings? Fortunately, IMDB has a nice little feature that allows you to look at the demographic distribution behind a movie’s rating. If you access IMDB on it’s website, clicking the number of votes that a rating is based on will get you to the demographics behind the rating.

Before looking at the distribution for Ghostbusters, let’s look at a movie that wasn’t polarizing. The 2016 movie Sully is such a movie according to the following demographics:

Votes Average
Males  99301  7.4
Females  19115  7.6
Aged under 18  675  7.7
Males under 18  566  7.6
Females under 18  102  7.8
Aged 18-29  50050  7.5
Males Aged 18-29  40830  7.5
Females Aged 18-29  8718  7.6
Aged 30-44  47382  7.4
Males Aged 30-44  40321  7.4
Females Aged 30-44  6386  7.5
Aged 45+  12087  7.5
Males Aged 45+  9871  7.5
Females Aged 45+  1995  7.8
IMDb staff  17  7.7
Top 1000 voters  437  7.2
US users  17390  7.5
Non-US users  68746  7.4

There is very little difference in the average rating (the number to the far right) among all of the groups. When you have a movie that is not polarizing, like Sully, the distribution by rating should look something like this:

Votes  Percentage  Rating
12465  8.1% 10
19080  12.4% 9
52164  33.9% 8
47887  31.1% 7
15409  10.0% 6
4296  2.8% 5
1267  0.8% 4
589  0.4% 3
334  0.2% 2
576  0.4% 1

It takes on the principles of a bell curve, with the most ratings clustering around the average for the movie.

Here’s what the demographic breakdown for Ghostbusters looks like today:

Votes Average
Males  87119  5.0
Females  27237  6.7
Aged under 18  671  5.3
Males under 18  479  4.9
Females under 18  185  6.6
Aged 18-29  36898  5.4
Males Aged 18-29  25659  5.0
Females Aged 18-29  10771  6.7
Aged 30-44  54294  5.2
Males Aged 30-44  43516  5.0
Females Aged 30-44  9954  6.6
Aged 45+  11422  5.3
Males Aged 45+  9087  5.1
Females Aged 45+  2130  6.3
IMDb staff  45  7.4
Top 1000 voters  482  4.9
US users  25462  5.5
Non-US users  54869  5.2

There is still a big gap in the ratings between men and women and it persists in all age groups. This polarizing effect produces a ratings distribution graph very different from the one for Sully.

Votes  Percentage  Rating
20038  12.8% 10
6352  4.1% 9
13504  8.6% 8
20957  13.4% 7
24206  15.5% 6
18686  12.0% 5
10868  7.0% 4
7547  4.8% 3
6665  4.3% 2
27501  17.6% 1

It looks like a bell curve sitting inside a football goal post. But it is still useful because it suggests the average IMDB rating for the movie when you exclude the 1’s and the 10’s is around 6 rather than a 5.3.

You are probably thinking that, while interesting, is this information useful. Does it help me decide whether to watch a movie or not? Well, here’s the payoff. The big movie opening this weekend that the industry will be watching closely is Mother!. The buzz coming out of the film festivals is that it is a brilliant but polarizing movie. All four of the main actors (Jennifer Lawrence, Javier Bardem, Michele Pfeiffer, Ed Harris) are in the discussion for acting awards. I haven’t seen the movie but I don’t sense that it is politically polarizing like An Inconvenient Sequel and Ghostbusters. I think it probably impacts the sensibilities of different demographics in different ways.

So, should you go see Mother! this weekend? Fortunately, its early screenings at the film festivals give us an early peek at the data trends. The IMDB demographics so far are revealing. First, by looking at the rating distribution, you can see the goal post shape of the graph, confirming that the film is polarizing moviegoers.

Votes  Percentage  Rating
486  36.0% 10
108  8.0% 9
112  8.3% 8
92  6.8% 7
77  5.7% 6
44  3.3% 5
49  3.6% 4
40  3.0% 3
52  3.8% 2
291  21.5% 1

57.5% of IMDB voters have rated it either a 10 or a 1. So are you likely to love it or hate it? Here’s what the demographics suggest:

Votes Average
Males  717  6.1
Females  242  5.4
Aged under 18  25  8.4
Males under 18  18  8.2
Females under 18  6  10.0
Aged 18-29  404  7.3
Males Aged 18-29  305  7.5
Females Aged 18-29  98  6.1
Aged 30-44  288  5.0
Males Aged 30-44  215  5.0
Females Aged 30-44  69  5.2
Aged 45+  152  4.3
Males Aged 45+  111  4.3
Females Aged 45+  40  4.1
Top 1000 voters  48  4.6
US users  273  4.4
Non-US users  438  6.5

While men like the movie more than women, if you are over 30, men and women hate the movie almost equally. There is also a 2 point gap between U.S. and non-U.S. voters. This is a small sample but it has a distinct trend. I’ll be interested to see if the trends hold up as the sample grows.

So, be forewarned. If you take your entire family to see Mother! this weekend, some of you will probably love the trip and some of you will probably wish you stayed home.

 

Stop the Madness! The Male IMDB War Against Ghostbusters.

Ghostbusters, with its all female leads, opened this weekend with strong box office sales that met Sony’s expectations. Given the bizarre stories leading up to the release of the movie, that kind of box office performance was by no means a given. Apparently, there was a male backlash to the idea of an all female Ghostbusters team. In an apparent effort to hurt the movie at the box office, there was an attempt to tank the IMDB ratings of the movie before its release.

After devoting my last two posts to Rotten Tomatoes and male bias in their ratings, I was looking forward to writing about something a little lighter. But, to quote Michael Corleone in The Godfather Part III, “Just when I thought I was out… they pull me back in.” It seems like the topic of male bias and movie ratings isn’t done with me.

Ghostbusters, with its all female leads, opened this weekend with strong box office sales that met Sony’s expectations. Given the bizarre stories leading up to the release of the movie, that kind of box office performance was by no means a given. Apparently, there was a male backlash to the idea of an all female Ghostbusters team. In an apparent effort to hurt the movie at the box office,  there was an attempt to tank the IMDB ratings of the movie before its release. It was a big enough story to catch the attention of the folks over at Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website. Their article covers the IMDB tanking story as well as sharing the author’s thoughts on the weaknesses of IMDB and Rotten Tomatoes. These thoughts are very much in concert with the studies I’ve shared with you on these pages. I thought it was particularly interesting that, according to a prior FiveThityEight study, Ghostbusters isn’t the first instance of males tanking IMDB ratings for entertainment aimed at women.

As of this morning, there is still a significant male-female split on IMDB. Based on 17,940 male votes, the male average rating for Ghostbusters is 4.5. Based on 5,518 female votes, the average female IMDB rating is 8.1. For females the rating is 80% higher than the male rating. Yet, because there are 3.25 males voting for every 1 female, the overall average IMDB rating is 4.8. This effort by males to sabotage Ghostbusters appears to be a worldwide phenomenon. 31.0% of U.S. voters scored the movie a 1 out of 10, the lowest score you can enter on IMDB. 35.8% of non-U.S. voters have scored the movie a 1 out of 10 so far.

Now, there is a legitimate difference in opinion about the movie between men and women who’ve actually seen the movie. The critics on Rotten Tomatoes, whose male critics presumably didn’t participate in the efforts to tank the ratings, generate a significant male-female split. Consistent with findings of my study from the previous post, the 3.35 male reviews for every female review falls into the high range of female critic participation. It’s in this high range where the widest male-female splits occur. For Ghostbusters, male Rotten Tomatoes critics gave it a 69.5% Fresh while female critics gave it an 86.4% Fresh rating, a 21.7% higher rating by female critics.

Bottom line, this is another mark against using IMDB ratings as a major influence in deciding what movies we should watch. And, Guys, stop the madness!! It’s only a movie! Rating movies that you haven’t seen only hurts those of us who actually want to discover movies that we will “really like”.